By East Asia Forum (EAF) and East Asian Bureau of Economic Research (EABER), Crawford School of Economics and Government, Australian National University
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Extra info for East Asia Forum Quarterly, October-December 2010
And other G20 countries have been reluctant to push the issue. This G20 failing jeopardises the prospects for recovery. The absence of progress on this front means that global imbalances will be back. Asia is still running current account surpluses and accumulating reserves. The European periphery, previously accustomed to running current account deficits, is no longer in a position to do so. This leaves only the United States on the other side of the equation. US households are saving more than before the crisis, but the country as a whole is not.
Its own currency, the renminbi, is hardly used to finance its huge surplus. Instead the world trades on a dollar standard. We have an anomaly: the world’s largest creditor cannot finance foreign investments in RMB. This lag in international RMB use is partly because China’s domestic financial markets are immature, with interest rate restrictions and foreign exchange capital controls. World financial markets also prefer one or two national currencies for clearing international payments: currently the dominant dollar and the regionally powerful euro—although the PBOC is trying hard to encourage the RMB’s use around Asia.
What the G20 has called for is to accelerate the schedule of the next quota reform, stipulating that the process must be completed by January 2011, with an adjustment of at least 5 per cent toward the under-represented dynamic emerging market economies. Yet quota reform is a zero-sum game. To achieve the adjustment of an even 5 per cent is probably a political feat that would only be possible with the full might of the G20. But in substance it amounts to virtually nothing even if it is achieved as promised.
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